Durable goods orders rise 1.8% in September on robust capital investment
By TopHolding Editorial · Monday, October 26, 2026 at 8:00 PM
First Trust reports durable goods orders climbed 1.8% in September, driven by aircraft demand and strong business investment in core capital goods.
According to Braden Spiech, Economic Analyst, Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist, and Robert Stein, CFA, Dep. Chief Economist at First Trust Portfolios, underlying manufacturing activity remains robust amid a resurgence in business capital spending. New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods climbed 1.8% in September, or 2.0% including revisions, matching expectations closely against a consensus forecast of 1.9%. Over the past year, total durable goods orders have grown 9.9%.
The First Trust team observes that while aircraft purchases lifted the headline figure, orders excluding transportation provide a clearer measure of broader economic conditions. These core orders rose 0.5% in September and stand 11.1% higher than a year earlier. The authors note that several core sectors experienced substantial annual growth, highlighting double-digit twelve-month gains in primary metals, industrial machinery, and computers and electronic products.
The analysts identify core shipments—shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—as the most critical metric in the release because it feeds directly into gross domestic product estimates for business investment. These shipments expanded 1.2% in September, recording an eighth straight monthly advance and rising at a 16.5% annualized rate in the third quarter. First Trust points out that core shipments are up 11.5% year over year, representing the strongest annual increase outside the pandemic era since 2012. Wesbury and his team attribute this strength to tech hyperscaler spending, manufacturing reshoring, and supportive investment tax provisions.
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Key terms
1. Durable goods: Manufactured products designed to last three years or longer, such as industrial machinery, electronics, and commercial aircraft.
2. Core capital goods shipments: Deliveries of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, used by government statisticians to estimate business equipment spending in quarterly GDP.
3. Unfilled orders: The backlog of secured customer orders that manufacturers have not yet completed or shipped.
Source: Braden Spiech, Economic Analyst, Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist, and Robert Stein, CFA, Dep. Chief Economist, First Trust Portfolios — Data Watch. Read the original at ftportfolios.com.
