Producer Price Index Surges 1.3% in September, Exceeding Expectations
By TopHolding Editorial · Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM
According to Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Portfolios, along with Economic Analyst Braden Spiech and Deputy Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA, the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a substantial 1.3% increase in September, significantly surpassing the consensus forecast. This surge, driven by broad-based price hikes including a notable rise in energy costs, marks the largest monthly gain since 2022, signaling ongoing inflationary pressures across the economy.
According to Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Portfolios, along with Economic Analyst Braden Spiech and Deputy Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.3% in September, significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of 0.6%. This brings the year-over-year increase in producer prices to 6.3%. First Trust's economists highlight that the September gain was the largest monthly increase since 2022, surpassing even the most aggressive forecasts on Bloomberg. Energy prices played a substantial role, jumping 10.8% for the month.
Spiech, Wesbury, and Stein note that more than 40% of the headline increase was attributable to energy. However, final demand prices excluding food and energy still rose 0.7% in September, indicating that the secondary effects of higher energy costs are permeating the economy. The report details that prices for goods increased by 2.6% in September, which represents the largest monthly rise since data collection began in 2009. Half of this increase, the economists point out, was due to a 20.3% surge in gasoline prices, which are up 64.3% over the past year. Food prices also contributed to the rise, increasing by 1.2%.
On the services side, prices advanced 0.8%, primarily led by a 3.9% increase in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. Further up the supply chain, the economists observe that intermediate goods experienced broad-based price increases. Processed intermediate goods saw a 2.5% rise in September, largely propelled by a 21.0% increase in diesel fuel. Unprocessed intermediate goods climbed 8.4%, with crude petroleum jumping 28.3%. First Trust's team states that both unprocessed and processed intermediate goods have seen their largest twelve-month increases since 2022.
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Excluding food and energy,
Source: Braden Spiech, Economic Analyst; Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist and Robert Stein, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist, First Trust Portfolios — Data Watch. Read the original at ftportfolios.com.
